Every liberalisation of Korean outbound travel was supposed to empty Jeju. Cheap flights to Southeast Asia, visa-free Japan, reopened China — each was forecast as the island’s reckoning. Each time, Jeju kept its thirteen-million-visitor machine: the honeymoon flight, the family golden-week drive, the company retreat. Domestic ritual proved stickier than price competition.
Captive demand behaves unlike tourist demand: it is calendar-driven (school holidays, wedding seasons), weather-tolerant and brand-loyal. Jeju’s resort coast prices to it: Jungmun’s flags hold rates through months when comparable Thai resorts discount, because their guest cannot be diverted by a promotion — she is coming for the ritual, not the deal.
The strain is visible at the edges: traffic on the coastal road, waiting lists at the famous restaurants, a local backlash that now shapes planning votes. The island’s response — spreading visitors to the east coast villages and the mid-mountain belt — is the current growth story. The premium is captive; the capacity is not.
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