01 — Record demand, first cracks
The headline is strength: 2.94 million visitors in 2025 (2.69M by air), a record Q1 2026 of 1.03 million, and H1 up 7.8% year-on-year. The footnote is new: June 2026 arrivals dipped 1.2% — the first monthly decline of the cycle — as the colón’s appreciation, 15–20% against the dollar since 2022, pushed Costa Rica’s dollar prices above Mexico and the Caribbean alternatives it competes with for the US traveler.
The demand base is unusually resilient: North America contributes roughly two-thirds of arrivals, with the US alone near 55%, and the visitor profile is the industry’s envy — 10.3 nights average stay, $1,848 spend, heavy skew to nature, adventure and wellness product that doesn’t cross-shop on price alone. But price sensitivity exists at the margin, and June showed where the margin is.
02 — The geography of a stay
· Guanacaste & Papagayo — the resort corridor, LIR-served, dry coast
· Arenal & Monteverde — volcano-and-cloudforest interior circuit
· Manuel Antonio & the Central Pacific — beach-meets-jungle, SJO side
· Caribbean & Osa — the wild fringe: Tortuguero, Corcovado, surf
· The classic triangle: Arenal–Monteverde–beach in 7–10 nights
· Wildlife: sloths, turtles, quetzals — the naturalist product
· Adventure: zip-lines, rafting, surf — the activity stack
· Wellness: retreat product from Nosara to Uvita
Costa Rica sells a circuit, not a single stay: the standard itinerary runs Arenal’s volcano to Monteverde’s cloud forest to a Guanacaste or Central Pacific beach across 7–10 nights. That structure spreads demand across hundreds of small properties — the average hotel has under 40 rooms — and makes ground logistics, not airlift, the binding constraint on the experience.
03 — Two airports, two stories
The airport data is the market’s clearest split. Liberia (LIR) handled 904,762 passengers in H1 2026, up 13.3%, feeding Guanacaste’s resort corridor with direct US/Canada service. San José (SJO) still carries ~66% of air arrivals but its hotel market tells a different story: city RevPAR remains below 2019, squeezed between the strong colón and a corporate demand base that has never fully recovered its pre-2020 shape. The growth is coastal; the capital is flat.
04 — The currency problem, honestly
The colón’s strength is a success story — investment-grade trajectory, nearshoring FDI, record exports — that lands on tourism as a cost. An operator paying wages, food and utilities in colones while invoicing in dollars has lost 15–20% of margin in four years without a single thing going wrong. The effects are distributive: ultra-luxury with pricing power passes it through; mid-market dollar product cannot, and it shows in June’s dip and in operators’ quiet repricing for 2027 contracts.
05 — Seasonality and the booking curve
The dry season (December–April) is the rate peak, with Christmas-to-Easter effectively sold out at the top lodges and Papagayo resorts. The green season (May–November) is the margin battleground: occupancy halves at interior lodges, and the strong colón leaves less room to discount. September–October is the trough. The booking window has lengthened — premium eco-lodges now take Christmas bookings 10–12 months out, a behavior imported from safari markets.
06 — Where the market goes next
Three structural moves define the next phase. First, Guanacaste’s resort corridor keeps absorbing share — LIR’s growth and the Papagayo pipeline guarantee it. Second, the ICT pivot to value formalizes what the currency already forces: the destination competes on yield, not price. Third, the Caribbean and Osa fringe is the next opening — product is thin, demand signals (surf, wellness, biodiversity tourism) are strong, and land is still priced for pioneers. Costa Rica’s problem is the one destinations want: demand is fine; the question is who captures it profitably.
Sources: Instituto Costarricense de Turismo (ICT) arrival statistics, Banco Central exchange-rate data, airport operator (AERIS/CORIPORT) traffic reports, STR/CoStar hotel data. Figures as of September 2026.